We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

Morningstar values SpaceX at $63 per share, a 53% discount to its IPO offering price of $135, based on probability-weighted scenarios for the company's future. The valuation reflects significant uncertainty around whether SpaceX can achieve engineering breakthroughs like a rapidly reusable Starship and orbital AI data centers, with these major innovations not expected until at least 2028. Even in Morningstar's most optimistic scenario valuing SpaceX at $154 per share, they assign only a 7% probability of success.