What will our economic future look like?

Anthropic's Economics team created a model to explore how AI might reshape the US economy through its effects on jobs, growth, and unemployment, allowing users to input their own predictions about AI capabilities to see potential economic scenarios for 2030. The model shows that in moderate growth scenarios, unemployment remains historical, but in scenarios with exceptionally rapid growth, knowledge workers face wage and job challenges despite overall societal wealth increasing. The framework represents all jobs as bundles of tasks that AI can augment, automate, leave unchanged, or create anew, acknowledging that some tasks—like patient care—require human workers.