What happens when you analyze your favorite college football team like the CIA?

A researcher applied intelligence analysis methodology—typically used by the CIA and government analysts to assess geopolitical events—to predict University of Illinois football outcomes. The approach involves identifying plausible scenarios, determining what evidence would distinguish between them, and revising assessments as new information arrives, rather than simply making a single prediction. The methodology, called Continuous Probabilistic Foresight, helps manage uncertainty by tracking which specific developments should be monitored to update forecasts.