Solana chart hints at 180% rally to $300 if key technical trend holds

Key takeaways:Historical chart patterns and the Fibonacci Retracement metric hint at a Solana price rally to $300.Solanas $7.5 billion in futures open interest and negative funding rates could be a sign that a powerful short squeeze is in the making.Solana (SOL) price tested the $180 resistance level on May 11, but it has since consolidated below this key threshold and appears unable to establish a sustained bullish position. However, the altcoin has maintained a positive signal by closing above the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) for three consecutive weeks. This critical level has historically acted as a catalyst for significant price rallies.Solana 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIn late 2023, SOL broke through the 50-week and 100-week EMAs, solidifying its position above these levels before surging 515% by March 2024. The relative strength index or RSI on the weekly chart is currently at 52.60, indicating growing buying pressure.This setup mirrors past patterns where SOL broke above the 50-week EMA and rallied significantly. With current technicals aligning, SOL appears poised to retest the $300 level by late 2025, a key psychological and historical resistance.Using trend-based Fibonacci (FIB) extensions, SOLs potential upside could be more compelling. The FIB extension, taken to the January highs of $295 from the recent swing lows near $95, outlines an immediate target of around $300, or a 70% increase.Solana Fibonacci trend extension analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewOnce SOL price enters price discovery, bullish momentum could target the 1.618 extension, suggesting SOL could reach as high as $418. However, failure to hold the 50-week EMA could cause SOL retest the lower support near $157.Related: Solana may be a memecoin one-trick pony Standard CharteredSolana traders debate SOLs next breakout catalystWhile Solana continues to trade nearly 40% below its all-time high, SOL futures market activity remains robust. According to CoinGlass, Solana futures open interest (OI) stands at $7.5 billion just $1 billion short of its Jan. 19, 2025, peak of $8.5 billion. Elevated OI levels typically signal heightened speculative interest and suggest that traders are positioning for significant price volatility.Solana futures open interest. Source: CoinGlassFunding rates across exchanges have also turned negative, indicating a tilt toward short positions as SOL struggles to reclaim the key $180 resistance. While this often reflects bearish sentiment, it also opens the door for a potential short squeeze. Crypto futures analyst Byzantine General pointed out that current market conditions characterized by elevated OI, rising aggregated volume, and relatively muted cross-exchange funding suggest that SOL price may be stabilizing. He noted this setup could catalyze a sharp upside move, with the possibility of a breakout toward the $300 level if momentum builds.Solana price, aggregated open interest, volume, and funding rate. Source: Byzantine General/XHowever, caution is warranted. Prominent trader Carl Moon flagged a potential double top pattern on the 4-hour chart. If the pattern plays out, the trader warned that SOL could revisit $157 to $152 in the short term.The $180 level remains the critical inflection point. A decisive move above it could confirm a bullish continuation, while rejection may lead to a healthy correction to the $150$160 range.Related: Ether price target shifts to $3K after SharpLink adopts ETH treasury strategyThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.