Runs Scored in World Baseball Classic

The author predicted 59 runs would be scored during the knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic, which matched the actual outcome almost exactly. Using historical data from previous tournaments, the author developed a baseline forecast of 61 runs with a 90% confidence interval of 35–87 runs, then refined this estimate by analyzing the underlying structure of run distributions across individual teams and games. The analysis demonstrates how statistical modeling techniques can be applied to sports prediction and other count-based forecasting problems.