No Juniors Today, No Seniors in 2031

Junior software engineering job postings have collapsed by approximately 40% since pre-2022 levels, with big tech and mid-tier companies increasingly moving to senior-only hiring as AI copilots allow experienced engineers to absorb more work. This hiring freeze creates a critical pipeline problem: since it takes 5-7 years to develop senior engineers through apprenticeship and accountability-driven learning, the cohort of juniors not being hired today will result in a shortage of senior engineers by 2031. The author argues that AI hasn't replaced the job itself but has eliminated the feedback loops—code reviews, production failures, and design accountability—that historically trained the next generation of senior engineers at scale.