Moon soon? XRP's strongest spot premium' aligns with 70% rally setup

Key takeaways:XRPs strongest spot premium phase suggests real buying demand, not just speculative futures trading. The number of XRP addresses holding 10,000 tokens has steadily climbed, even during recent price pullbacks. A falling wedge pattern points to a possible breakout toward $3 to $3.78, with up to 70% upside if confirmed.XRP (XRP) is experiencing its strongest sustained phase of spot premium in history, a period where the spot market has been consistently trading at stronger levels compared to perpetual futures.XRPs 350% rally is backed by real demand Since 2020, most major XRP price peaks happened when the perpetual futures market was leading, noted market analyst Dom in his May 2 post on X. XRPs futures prices being higher than spot signaled excessive speculation and led to sharp price drops.XRP/USD daily price ft. spot vs premium rates. Source: TradingView/DomAs of 2025, a spot premium suggests that demand from actual XRP buyers is driving the rally, pointing to a more stable price rise compared to past runs powered by leveraged bets.Further reinforcing the case for real demand, Glassnode data shows a consistent rise in the number of XRP addresses holding at least 10,000 XRP (the green wave in the chart below) since late November 2024. XRPs price has rallied by approximately 350% since then.XRP number of addresses with a balance of over 10,000 tokens vs. price. Source: GlassnodeXRPs whale count has risen even during its 35% price pullback between January and April. It suggests that larger holdersoften viewed as more patient or strategic investorsare steadily accumulating positions in anticipation of further gains.Optimism has been fueled by improving odds of spot XRP ETF approval in the US. The US Securities and Exchange Commissions (SEC) decision to drop its lawsuit against Ripple has further boosted the markets upside sentiment.Source: Eric BalchunasRelated: SEC punts decisions on XRP, DOGE ETFsFalling wedge hints at 70% XRP price rally XRP has been consolidating within a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart a structure defined by downward-sloping, converging trendlines. In technical analysis, this pattern is generally viewed as a bullish reversal signal.A confirmed breakout requires a clear move above the wedges upper resistance near $2.52. XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewIf XRP breaks this level, the patterns measured move calculated from the wedges maximum height suggests a potential rally toward $3.78 by June. This would represent an estimated 70% upside from the current prices.Conversely, if XRP fails to break above the $2.52 resistance, the price could pull back toward the wedges lower trendline. The patterns apex near $1.81 may act as the final potential breakout point.A breakout from the $1.81 level would still keep the patterns structure intact, with a potential upside target around $3 by June or July roughly 35% above current levels.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.