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China controls over 90% of global rare earth refining and has weaponized this dominance by repeatedly suspending exports during trade negotiations, forcing American concessions. The U.S. attempt to rebuild its rare earth supply chain through existing financing tools has stalled due to misalignment of interests and insufficient incentives for private investment, prompting experts to propose a contingent convertible security that would convert into ownership stakes if China restricts supply. The authors argue that this market failure requires non-traditional financing solutions beyond current subsidies to ensure long-term supply chain security.
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