AI is a bubble, just like dot-com

The author explores the tension between AI skepticism and enthusiasm by comparing it to the dot-com bubble, where dismissing all hype as delusion proved incomplete—Amazon crashed 90% but ultimately succeeded. Both perspectives contain truth: AI's rapid iteration and unclear applications echo bubble dynamics, yet meaningful progress is happening simultaneously, creating genuine uncertainty about which bets will pay off. The key insight is that declaring one side "right" and the other "deluded" oversimplifies a landscape where understanding lags behind shipping, making it genuinely difficult to distinguish transformative technology from speculative excess.