AI 2040 and the Cult of Intelligence

# Summary The author argues that AI safety advocates overestimate intelligence's transformative power, confusing theoretical possibility with practical reality. Drawing from hardware experience, they contend that physical constraints, supply chains, and manufacturing limitations—not intelligence—are the actual bottlenecks, and that no "hard takeoff" scenario will overcome these material constraints. They also critique AI 2040 predictions as self-fulfilling narratives designed to justify expanded government regulation rather than realistic forecasts.