$12B of US ratepayers' money wasted on a modeling mistake in PJM

PJM, America's largest electricity market, has wasted approximately $12 billion of ratepayers' money between 2025 and 2027 due to modeling errors in its Reserve Requirement Study that underestimated existing power plant capacity by roughly 4 gigawatts. The analysis reveals that PJM's flawed methodology, which failed to account for improved winter efficiency and power plant resilience, dramatically overstated supply shortages and inflated electricity costs, with better modeling potentially saving $6.7 billion for 2025-2026 alone. PJM's capacity market design and governance structure are identified as fundamentally flawed and structurally resistant to growth.